3 Overrated NFL Teams in 2024 Win Total Projections

The DraftKings Sportsbook recently released their over/under win totals for the upcoming 2024 NFL season. While many projections seem accurate, some teams appear overrated. Let’s delve into three teams whose projected win totals might be too optimistic.

Atlanta Falcons: A Questionable 10.5 Wins

DraftKings projects the Atlanta Falcons to win 10.5 games in 2024. This projection seems overly optimistic considering the uncertainties surrounding the team. While the addition of Kirk Cousins at quarterback brings experience, his age (36) and recent Achilles injury raise concerns about his performance.

Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons quarterback

Furthermore, the Falcons’ receiving corps lacks proven talent beyond Drake London. Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore have yet to consistently perform at a high level. While Bijan Robinson could emerge as a top all-purpose player, relying on potential breakout seasons for multiple players is risky. Comparing Atlanta’s projection to teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, and Detroit Lions further highlights the potential overestimation. Even with the advantage of playing in the weaker NFC South, reaching 11 wins seems like a significant challenge for the Falcons.

Washington Commanders: Unjustified 7.5 Wins

The Washington Commanders finished the 2023 season with a dismal 4-13 record, losing their final nine games. Their quarterback situation remains uncertain, with Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels as potential starters. Aside from a potentially declining Austin Ekeler, the team hasn’t significantly improved its offensive weapons.

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The Commanders’ defense, ranked worst in the NFL last year, also presents a major hurdle. With a projected win total of 7.5, it’s difficult to justify such optimism. Facing tough competition within the NFC East, including the Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, and New York Giants, the Commanders face an uphill battle. Unless Maye or Daniels delivers an exceptional rookie performance, a repeat of last season’s struggles seems likely. The lack of elite talent on both sides of the ball suggests a lower win total is more realistic.

Los Angeles Chargers: An Unrealistic 8.5 Wins

Despite Justin Herbert’s injury impacting their 5-12 record in 2023, projecting the Los Angeles Chargers to surpass .500 in 2024 seems overly ambitious. The departure of key offensive players Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler leaves a significant void in the team’s receiving corps.

While the upcoming NFL Draft could provide a talented receiver, relying on an unproven rookie to immediately contribute at a high level is a gamble. The Chargers’ defense also struggled last year, and financial limitations hindered significant improvements in free agency. Retaining Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa provides some stability, but overall, the team lacks elite talent beyond Herbert.

While the AFC West offers some reprieve with the rebuilding Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders, achieving nine wins remains a stretch for a Chargers team with noticeable weaknesses on offense. The team’s success hinges heavily on Herbert’s performance and the emergence of new offensive contributors.