The practice of “cracking” graded sports cards—removing them from their protective cases for re-grading—has become increasingly common in the hobby. While perfectly legal, this practice raises questions about the consistency and accuracy of grading companies like PSA and BGS, and contributes to inflated population reports. This article delves into the issue of overpopulation in graded card populations, examining specific examples and discussing the implications for collectors and investors.
The Grading Game: Subjectivity and the Quest for a Higher Grade
Collectors often crack and resubmit cards hoping for a higher grade, potentially increasing the card’s value. A slight shift in sub-grades—centering, corners, edges, and surface—can significantly impact the overall grade. This subjectivity in grading creates an environment where a card might receive different grades from different graders or even the same grader at different times.
Images of 2017 Panini DonRuss Optic Cody Bellinger sports trading card
This 2017 Panini Donruss Optic Cody Bellinger card exemplifies the inconsistencies in grading. Initially graded by BGS, it later received a PSA 10 grade, highlighting the subjective nature of the process.
Inflated Numbers: When Pop Reports Exceed Production Runs
The problem of overpopulation arises when the number of graded cards in a particular set exceeds the number originally produced. This discrepancy is often due to cracking and resubmitting, creating multiple entries for the same card in population reports. Let’s examine a few examples:
The Curious Case of the 2016 Bowman Chrome Juan Soto Orange Refractor Auto
The 2016 Bowman Chrome Juan Soto Orange Refractor Autograph, limited to 25 copies, shows a significant discrepancy between its production run and graded population. BGS reports 32 graded copies, while PSA reports 4. This suggests that several cards have been cracked and resubmitted multiple times, inflating the population reports.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Refractor Auto Puzzle
A similar issue exists with the 2016 Bowman Chrome Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Blue Refractor Autograph. While this card has a larger print run of 150, the combined BGS and PSA population reports total 149 graded copies. This near-perfect representation in graded form raises questions about the potential for future overpopulation as cracking and resubmitting continues.
The Impact of Overpopulation on the Hobby
The inflated population numbers create a distorted view of card scarcity, potentially impacting card values and investment decisions. While a PSA 10 might traditionally signify rarity, its significance diminishes when the reported population exceeds the actual number of cards produced. This discrepancy undermines the integrity of population reports and raises concerns about transparency within the grading industry.
The Future of Grading: Technology and Transparency
The future of card grading may lie in technology. Automated grading systems could potentially eliminate subjectivity and provide more consistent results. Increased transparency from grading companies regarding resubmissions and revisions would also help to address the issue of overpopulation.
Advancements in technology, such as automated grading systems, hold the potential to revolutionize the sports card grading industry and address inconsistencies.
Conclusion
The issue of overpopulation in graded card populations is a complex one with significant implications for the hobby. While cracking and resubmitting remains a legitimate practice, the resulting inflated numbers raise concerns about the accuracy and reliability of population reports. Greater transparency and potential technological advancements in grading may offer solutions to this growing problem, ensuring a more accurate and trustworthy market for collectors and investors.
