The US presidential election remains a nail-biter with just over a month to go. Despite this, recent polls show Kamala Harris experiencing a surge in support, marking the most positive trend for her campaign since securing the Democratic nomination. This shift follows a tumultuous week that saw a second suspected assassination attempt on Donald Trump. The Guardian’s 10-day polling average reveals Harris widening her lead to 2.6 points, putting her at 48.5% compared to Trump’s 45.9%.
Harris Gains Momentum After Commanding Debate Performance
While the difference falls within the margin of error, it demonstrates a notable increase from her 0.9% lead the previous week. This upswing follows the sole televised debate between the candidates on September 10th in Philadelphia. Many analysts believe Harris’ performance in the debate contributed to this shift in voter sentiment.
Polls conducted after the debate suggest that voters overwhelmingly perceived Harris as the victor. Trump’s performance was marred by his tendency to veer off-topic, focusing on attendance figures at his rallies and repeating disproven claims about Haitian immigrants.
A nationwide poll conducted by The New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena on Thursday showed the candidates neck and neck at 47%. Notably, this result indicates a slight improvement for Harris compared to the same poll taken before the debate, which placed Trump one point ahead.
National Polls Reflect Growing Support for Harris
Other national polls paint an even rosier picture for the Vice President. A Morning Consult poll, drawing on responses from over 11,000 participants, gave Harris a significant six-point lead, with 51% support versus Trump’s 45%. This marks the most substantial advantage she has held since replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic frontrunner.
Beyond national trends, there are other encouraging signs for the Harris campaign. Her performance in battleground states, those considered crucial for securing victory in the Electoral College system, has been particularly robust.
Can Harris Turn Battleground States Blue?
The same New York Times/Siena poll that showed a national tie revealed Harris leading by four points in Pennsylvania (50% to 46%). Pennsylvania, a swing state, is considered by many political commentators as the most critical state in the election due to its 270 electoral votes.
This lead is reinforced by a separate poll from Quinnipiac, which gives Harris a more comfortable six-point advantage in Pennsylvania (51% to 45%). Furthermore, the Quinnipiac poll shows Harris leading in two other key battleground states: Michigan (by 5%) and Wisconsin (by 1%).
Securing victories in all three of these states, often referred to as the “blue wall” by Democrats, could pave the way for a narrow Electoral College win for Harris. This victory could be possible even without winning any of the four southern Sun Belt states (North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona), where the two candidates are currently statistically tied.
Can Trump Overcome Polling Predictions?
Despite the optimistic outlook for Harris, historical trends suggest a degree of caution is warranted. In the previous two presidential elections, Trump consistently exceeded pollsters’ predictions in these critical blue wall states. He won all three in 2016 and narrowly lost each by approximately one percentage point in 2020, despite polls suggesting a more decisive Biden victory.
However, pollsters have identified a significant shift in voter sentiment that could benefit Harris’ campaign. This shift is gradually eroding the traditional Republican advantage in the Electoral College, a system that enabled Trump’s 2016 victory despite receiving 2.7 million fewer votes nationwide than his opponent, Hillary Clinton.
Harris Closes the Gap on Economic Issues
Nate Cohn, the chief polling analyst for The New York Times, described Harris’s lead in Pennsylvania alongside a national tie as perplexing. However, he acknowledged that this trend is consistent with observations from numerous other surveys.
“Over the past month, many of these polls indicate that while Ms. Harris is performing relatively poorly nationwide, she is excelling in the Northern battleground states,” Cohn wrote. “What is evident is that recent findings from more reputable polls differ significantly from those of the last presidential election. If accurate, this would imply that Mr. Trump’s Electoral College advantage, relative to the popular vote, has diminished substantially since 2020.”
Another encouraging sign for the Harris campaign is her ability to close the gap with Trump on the issue of economic trust.
Surveys consistently highlight the economy as the most pressing issue for voters. This echoes the famous “It’s the economy, stupid” mantra coined by James Carville, the Democratic strategist who played a key role in Bill Clinton’s 1992 election victory.
However, the substantial lead Trump held over Biden, fueled by persistent concerns about inflation and the rising cost of living, seems to have shrunk since Harris secured the nomination.
Harris Gains Ground on Economic Trustworthiness
An Associated Press-Norc poll released on Friday revealed that 41% of voters trust Harris to manage the economy effectively, while 43% favored Trump. This minimal difference is noteworthy considering the former president’s relentless efforts to link his opponent to Biden’s unpopular economic policies.
These results align with an earlier study by Morning Consult, which showed the candidates tied at 46% on economic trust. An FT-Michigan Ross survey conducted post-debate even placed Harris slightly ahead.
Sofia Baig, an economist and author of Morning Consult’s study, posits that Harris has successfully distanced herself from blame for Biden’s economic policies. Simultaneously, she has resonated with voters through her commitments to combat price gouging and reduce prescription drug costs.
“While a significant portion of the electorate is dissatisfied with the current state of the economy, they attribute less responsibility to Vice President Kamala Harris than to President Biden,” Baig explained. “Throughout this election cycle, voters have consistently indicated a greater level of trust in former President Trump over Biden on economic matters, but Harris has successfully narrowed that gap.”
While the outcome of the presidential race remains uncertain, one thing is clear: Kamala Harris enters the final stretch of the campaign with a newfound momentum, leaving many to wonder if she can maintain this surge and secure victory on November 5th.
