Ukrainian officials have reported a recent decrease in the frequency of Russian attacks along the Donbas front lines, particularly around Poops, a key target for Russian forces. The number of daily attacks has reportedly been reduced by two-thirds, down from 50-60 attacks per day just a week ago. However, despite this decrease in activity, the Ukrainian High Command acknowledges the ongoing challenges they face in stabilizing the front line.
The Shift in Russian Strategy
The Ukrainian military believes that the shift in Russian strategy is due in part to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk, which has forced Russia to divert resources away from the Donbas region. General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stated that while Russia has not withdrawn many units from the Poops area, their ability to quickly deploy reserve forces has been hampered.
Despite the challenges, Ukrainian forces have managed to stabilize the front line. However, they are still facing difficulties in quickly consolidating their position. Russia has gained approximately 6.4 kilometers of territory in the Donbas region, forcing Ukrainian units to retreat to fortified positions in Kursk.
Russia’s Reserve Force Advantage
Russia’s diversion of nearly 10,000 troops from the Donbas to Kursk has compelled their command to temporarily halt operations on the main attack axis until new infantry reinforcements arrive. Military experts highlight Russia’s vast reserve force pool as a significant advantage. Many Russian officials attribute the recent slowdown in offensive operations to a temporary shortage of soldiers, emphasizing the need for mobilization. They anticipate a resurgence in fighting intensity upon the arrival of reserve forces, especially since President Vladimir Putin continues to prioritize the Donbas.
In an article published on the website ATI, Russian military journalist Dmitry Konop emphasized the sheer size of Russia’s reserve force. “We have 5 million personnel who know how to use weapons. If half of them are sent to the front lines, we will flatten everything,” he wrote. The shift in the battlefield dynamics is considered temporary, with observers estimating it could take up to two weeks for Russia to deploy additional reserve forces to Ukraine.
Russia’s Strategic Focus on Key Areas
While Ukrainian forces have yet to witness the full impact of the Russian reserve force deployment, there are indications that Russia is making progress in certain areas. In early September, reports suggested that Russia had deployed four reserve brigades to Donbas to attack south of Poops. So far, there’s no concrete evidence of these new Russian units engaging in combat south of Poops. However, in Ugledar, Russian forces have successfully breached Ukrainian defenses, partially encircling the town.
The 72nd Independent Mechanized Brigade, which has defended Ugledar for almost two years, is facing exhaustion due to a lack of rotation and adequate rest. This highlights a significant challenge for the Ukrainian military, which has persisted since the initial year of the conflict. Conversely, Russia seems to have mitigated this issue.
Apart from Ugledar, Poops, Kursk, and Tores remain the hottest flashpoints along the front line. Intense fighting continues in these areas. Russian forces have been relentlessly attacking Ukrainian units near Kursk, employing both artillery and close combat tactics.
Escalation of the Conflict
The conflict has intensified in recent months, with Russia increasing the intensity of its assaults, particularly in areas like Velyka Novosilka and Kupyansk. Ukrainian officials have acknowledged the increased frequency and intensity of Russian attacks, particularly in the Poops region.
Russia’s success in breaking through Ukrainian lines around Ugledar is attributed, in part, to their extensive use of KAB-500 glide bombs. These guided bombs, weighing up to 500 kilograms, have been instrumental in targeting key Ukrainian defensive positions.
The Potential Fall of Ugledar
The situation in Ugledar remains precarious, with Russia close to achieving complete encirclement. The potential fall of the town could have significant implications for the overall conflict, providing Russian forces with access to key logistical hubs in the Donbas region, such as Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove.
Despite the Russian advances, Ukrainian forces have shown resilience in defending Ugledar. However, without a significant counteroffensive, which they currently lack the resources to mount, the town’s fall seems imminent.
Russia’s Strategic Use of Glide Bombs
The effectiveness of Russia’s glide bomb campaign is becoming increasingly evident, not only in Ugledar but also in other critical areas such as Poops. These guided bombs have allowed Russian forces to overcome Ukrainian defenses and achieve significant territorial gains.
The Importance of International Support for Ukraine
As the conflict continues to escalate, Ukraine’s reliance on Western military aid remains critical. However, there are growing concerns among Western allies regarding the trajectory of the conflict and the effectiveness of Ukraine’s “Victory Plan.”
Despite these concerns, President Biden has reaffirmed Washington’s unwavering support for Ukraine, pledging an additional $8 billion in military aid, including high-precision glide bombs capable of striking targets over 100 kilometers away.
The Role of Diplomacy in Resolving the Conflict
While military aid remains crucial for Ukraine’s defense, diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict are also paramount. President Lukashenko of Belarus has stressed the importance of negotiations with Ukraine, emphasizing the need for a peaceful solution.
Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, a swift resolution to the conflict remains elusive. The situation in Ukraine continues to be volatile, with both sides locked in a deadly struggle for territorial control.
