The New Orleans Saints concluded the 2023 NFL season with a 9-8 record, missing the playoffs for the third consecutive year. Their performance was a mixed bag, starting strong with a 2-0 record, then faltering to 2-2, and eventually reaching 5-5 by week 10. This inconsistency characterized their season, marked by both highs and lows.
The New Orleans Saints playing a game
Their most notable victories included a dominant 34-0 shutout against the New England Patriots, where they conceded only eight first downs while forcing three turnovers. Another highlight was their week eight triumph over the Indianapolis Colts, showcasing one of their most potent offensive displays of the season, rivaling the league’s best.
However, as we approach the 2024 regular season, a crucial question arises: what direction are the Saints heading in? How are they actively pursuing improvement and striving for a Super Bowl victory under head coach Dennis Allen?
This roster, in its current state, lacks inspiration and ranks among the least inspiring in the NFL. This article delves into the Saints’ prospects for the 2024 season and assesses their chances of returning to the playoffs, a feat they last achieved in 2020 before their Divisional Round exit against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Reliving the 2023 Season: Highs and Lows
Among their triumphs in 2023, the most impressive was undoubtedly their 23-13 win over the Buccaneers in week 17. The defense shone, forcing four turnovers and boosting their record from 7-8 to 8-8 heading into the final week. This victory over the eventual division champions, particularly by a double-digit margin, was a significant accomplishment.
Beyond that, their week eight win against the Colts stands out due to the sheer brilliance of their offensive performance. However, a concerning pattern emerges when analyzing their remaining seven victories, all achieved against teams featuring top-10 draft picks at quarterback: Bryce Young (twice), Tyson Bagent, Tommy DeVito, Ryan Tannehill, Mac Jones, and Desmond Ridder.
This pattern raises significant concerns about the Saints’ prospects for 2024. While they might secure seven, eight, or even nine wins against weaker opponents, their ability to overcome strong teams in crucial games remains doubtful. Can Derek Carr and Dennis Allen be trusted to deliver when it matters most? That’s the pivotal question surrounding the Saints this year.
Free Agency and Draft: A Quiet Offseason
The Saints’ offseason activities, particularly during free agency, were relatively uneventful. Their most significant losses included Malcolm Roach (Denver Broncos), Jameis Winston (Cleveland Browns), and Andrus Peat (Las Vegas Raiders).
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New Orlean Saints quarterback Derek Carr
While these players, along with Zack Baun, Lonnie Johnson Jr., and Marcus Maye, joined new teams, their roles are likely to be backups. The Saints didn’t lose any irreplaceable starters. However, the significance of a backup quarterback in today’s NFL landscape might lead some to view Jameis Winston’s departure as a considerable loss.
The Saints, known for their unique salary cap management under general manager Mickey Loomis, tend to maximize their cap spending annually without much long-term planning. This approach has drawn criticism, particularly since the departure of Sean Payton and Drew Brees. Without their leadership, the Saints have struggled to assemble a roster capable of consistent success in high-stakes games.
Defensive Reinforcements: Chase Young and Willie Gay Jr.
Despite limited resources, the Saints made two notable additions in free agency: Chase Young and Willie Gay Jr. Willie Gay Jr. is expected to solidify the linebacker corps alongside Demario Davis and Pete Werner, forming a formidable trio.
However, at 35 years old, Demario Davis’s age is a concern. He’s the oldest player on the roster, and while he’s playing exceptional football, a decline is inevitable.
New Orlean Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan
Chase Young, despite a career marred by injuries, brings high potential and a proven track record of generating pressure. In 2023, he recorded a career-high in pressures and tied his career-high in sacks. A one-year, $13 million deal for a player of his caliber is a low-risk, high-reward move.
Offensive Concerns: Can Derek Carr Deliver?
While the Saints’ defense shows promise, the offense raises significant concerns, extending beyond Derek Carr’s ranking among NFL quarterbacks.
The running back duo of Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams, both entering the 2024 season at 29 years old, presents a significant question mark. Running backs have notoriously short shelf lives in the NFL, with performance declining rapidly compared to other positions. This is particularly concerning considering the Saints’ 31st-ranked yards-per-carry average in 2023.
While the arrival of new offensive coordinator Clint Kubiak might bring some improvement, it’s unrealistic to expect a dramatic turnaround in the running game. Kendre Miller, a third-round pick in the 2023 draft, had a relatively quiet rookie season. While some hope he might blossom into a star, banking on him replicating Kyren Williams’s breakout sophomore year with the Los Angeles Rams is overly optimistic.
The receiving corps, beyond Chris Olave, offers little to be excited about. Rashid Shaheed, after a 700-yard season, could develop into a reliable number two option. However, the remaining receivers—Cedric Wilson, Juwan Johnson, and Tre’Quan Smith—lack the dynamism to elevate the passing attack significantly.
The offensive line, despite the promising arrival of first-round pick Tevita Falemaka, isn’t expected to be a strength. While Falemaka projects as a future cornerstone, whether he plays left or right tackle, the overall unit lacks the consistency and talent to provide Carr with ample time and support.
Derek Carr: The X-Factor
Derek Carr, despite throwing for 25 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions in 2023, remains an enigma. While those numbers appear respectable, his performance was inconsistent throughout the season. In the first 13 games, he averaged 221 yards per game with a 13:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
While Carr finished the season strong, throwing 12 touchdowns and only one interception in the final four games, it’s premature to assume that level of play will carry over into 2024. He’s entering his eleventh season, and expecting a career renaissance is unrealistic.
Conclusion: A Season of Uncertainty
The New Orleans Saints enter the 2024 season facing more questions than answers. While their defense, bolstered by the additions of Young and Gay Jr., could be a top-10 unit, the offense remains a work in progress.
The running game, led by aging veterans, is a concern, and the receiving corps, outside of Olave, lacks firepower. The offensive line, while bolstered by Falemaka’s arrival, needs significant improvement to provide Carr with the necessary time and protection.
Ultimately, the Saints’ success hinges on Derek Carr’s performance. If he can replicate his late-season form from 2023, they have the potential to compete for a Wild Card spot. However, if he regresses to his early-season form, they’ll likely find themselves on the outside looking in.
The 2024 season promises to be a pivotal one for the New Orleans Saints. With a new offensive coordinator, a revamped defense, and a quarterback with something to prove, they have the potential to surprise. However, their success hinges on several key factors, making them one of the NFL’s most intriguing teams to watch this year.
