The global landscape is undergoing a period of unprecedented change, marked by escalating US-China competition, ongoing conflicts, and shifting alliances. Simultaneously, the rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI), exemplified by ChatGPT’s explosive debut, represents a technological revolution on par with the advent of the internet. This convergence of geopolitical instability and transformative technology defines the “inter-AI years,” a period where leaders across all sectors grapple with the implications of generative AI, seeking to harness its potential while mitigating its risks. This article explores the evolving dynamics of this generative world order, focusing on the interplay of geopolitics, technology, and markets.
The Geopolitics of Generative AI
Geopolitical competition is a perennial feature of the international system, but the technologies that fuel this competition are in constant flux. The US, China, and Russia, despite their numerous disagreements, all recognize AI’s potential to reshape the global balance of power. These nations, and others, are placing AI at the heart of their national strategies. World leaders have recognized the transformative power of AI, with statements from Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Joe Biden underscoring its significance.
Beyond the established powers, a new category of geopolitical “swing states”—nations with the capacity and will to assert themselves on the world stage—are also poised to influence the future of AI. Emerging economies, too, have the potential to benefit from AI, provided they establish the necessary policies and institutions. Their talent, resources, and perspectives are crucial to ensuring that the development of human-like intelligence benefits all of humanity.
The AI Superpowers: US and China
The US and China, while fierce competitors in the AI arena, are also significant collaborators. Despite escalating geopolitical tensions, AI research collaborations between the two countries quadrupled between 2010 and 2021, though the pace has slowed considerably since then. AI has become a critical domain for US-China cooperation, competition, and confrontation across economic, technological, political, and military spheres.
This great power competition centers on hardware, data, software, and talent. Both countries are striving to advance their AI capabilities, nurture leading companies, and identify the most impactful use cases. The US leverages its world-leading universities and companies, collaborating with a global network of allies. China pursues a long-term, state-led strategy emphasizing self-reliance and domestic industry growth.
Large language models (LLMs) are the current focal point of AI innovation. LLM performance generally improves with scale: more parameters, higher quality training data, more training runs, and increased computational power. While earlier models like GPT-2 had 1.5 billion parameters, subsequent iterations have grown exponentially, with GPT-4 reportedly containing 1 trillion. The vast open data ecosystem of the internet has been instrumental in LLM development, along with advances in silicon technology and software architecture.
Currently, the US leads in generative AI innovation, while China faces challenges in LLM training, partly due to differing approaches to governance. Open societies like the US grapple with AI risks, such as inaccuracies and “hallucinations,” but generally do not allow these concerns to stifle progress. Closed societies like China prioritize control over domestic speech and content, leading to restrictions that may hinder innovation. China’s regulations on generative AI, requiring adherence to “Core Socialist Values,” reflect this emphasis on control, potentially limiting the data sets used to train Chinese LLMs.
The AI competition also extends to hardware, particularly Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) crucial for high-performance computing. US-led export controls on advanced semiconductors have impacted China’s access to these critical components. China has responded with its own export controls on critical minerals and a renewed focus on domestic technological development. Despite these controls, China has made progress, as demonstrated by the Huawei Mate 60 Pro smartphone, which utilizes a domestically produced 7-nm chip. This achievement highlights China’s resilience and the limitations of current export controls, though questions remain about scalability and cost-effectiveness.
The “chip wars” have far-reaching implications for both geopolitics and global markets, reshaping supply chains and influencing corporate strategies. Major chipmakers like Nvidia have adapted to the new landscape by developing versions of their products specifically for the Chinese market. The US is actively promoting domestic chip production through initiatives like the CHIPS and Science Act, aiming to secure a technological edge.
Beyond state-led initiatives, a thriving AI ecosystem requires policies that encourage innovation, protect intellectual property, and provide predictable regulations. China’s crackdown on its tech sector has introduced uncertainty, potentially dampening its dynamism.
The Future of the Generative World Order
Predicting the long-term consequences of the generative AI revolution is challenging. However, it is clear that AI will profoundly shape our lives and the nature of global politics. Key questions remain: Who will be the winners and losers? Will generative AI be a zero-sum game or create win-win scenarios? Can the technology solve the very problems it creates? Will companies or governments drive AI’s future?
The nascent stage of generative AI and its rapid evolution make these questions both momentous and difficult to answer. We are at the beginning of a new world order shaped by AI, and the choices made today will determine its future trajectory. The evolving strategies of techno-economic statecraft employed by the US, China, and other nations will play a crucial role in shaping this emerging landscape.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What are the main drivers of the emerging generative world order?
A: The confluence of escalating geopolitical competition, particularly between the US and China, and the rapid advancement of generative AI technology are the primary drivers of this new world order.
Q: How is the competition between the US and China shaping the future of AI?
A: The US-China competition is playing out across multiple dimensions, including hardware (especially semiconductors), data access, software development, and talent acquisition. Each country’s approach to governance and regulation also significantly impacts its AI trajectory.
Q: What are some of the key uncertainties surrounding the generative AI revolution?
A: Key uncertainties include the long-term societal and geopolitical impacts of AI, the distribution of benefits and risks, the potential for AI to exacerbate existing inequalities, and the evolving role of governance and regulation.
Q: How can I stay informed about the latest developments in generative AI and its impact on the world?
A: Stay tuned to Unilever Edu for in-depth analysis and reporting on the evolving generative world order. We encourage you to share this article and contribute to the conversation by submitting your questions and insights in the comments section below.
