Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills star quarterback, consistently ranks high in fantasy football drafts. However, with significant roster changes in the offseason, is his top-tier ADP justified for the 2024 season? This article delves into Allen’s fantasy prospects, considering the departure of key receivers and the potential impact on his production.
Allen’s exceptional dual-threat capabilities have made him a fantasy football favorite. His ability to score touchdowns both passing and rushing consistently places him among the top quarterbacks drafted. However, his average draft position (ADP) of 16th overall, often the first quarterback selected, raises concerns about his potential value in 2024.
The Impact of Offseason Departures
A significant factor in questioning Allen’s 2024 fantasy outlook is the loss of key receiving targets Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Diggs, a perennial Pro Bowler, provided Allen with a reliable and explosive downfield threat. Davis, while less consistent, offered a valuable second option in the passing game. Their departures leave a void in the Bills’ receiving corps, raising questions about Allen’s ability to maintain his high level of production.
The Bills attempted to address these losses by signing veteran Curtis Samuel and drafting rookie Keon Coleman. However, Samuel has a history of injuries, and expecting a rookie like Coleman to immediately fill the shoes of Diggs is unrealistic. The uncertainty surrounding the receiving corps introduces a significant variable into Allen’s fantasy potential.
Allen’s Historical Performance and Dependency on Diggs
Examining Allen’s past performance reveals a potential correlation between his success and Diggs’ presence. In the three seasons prior to 2023, with Diggs as his primary target, Allen consistently threw for over 30 touchdowns. Before Diggs’ arrival, Allen’s touchdown totals were significantly lower. While his early career struggles can be attributed to inexperience, the stark contrast in production raises questions about his ability to thrive without a top-tier receiver.
Furthermore, the loss of Gabe Davis, a dependable second option, further complicates matters. While not a star, Davis provided a consistent presence that allowed Allen to distribute the ball effectively. The Bills’ current receiving options lack the proven track record to instill confidence in Allen’s ability to replicate his past performances.
Potential Bright Spots and Remaining Questions
Despite the concerns, there are potential bright spots for Allen in 2024. The Bills boast a strong tight end duo in Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, both capable of contributing significantly in the passing game. Running back James Cook also emerged as a potent offensive weapon last season, providing a reliable ground game and a potential outlet for Allen in the passing game.
Ultimately, Allen’s fantasy success hinges on several factors. Can the new receiving corps step up and provide adequate targets? Will Kincaid and Knox emerge as reliable safety nets for Allen? Can Allen continue to utilize his rushing ability to compensate for potential passing game limitations? These questions will need to be answered before definitively determining Allen’s fantasy value in 2024.
Conclusion: Proceed with Caution
While Josh Allen remains a supremely talented quarterback, his 2024 fantasy outlook is clouded by uncertainty. The departure of key receivers and the unproven nature of their replacements introduce significant risk. While his rushing ability provides a safety net, relying solely on that aspect would be a departure from his recent production. Fantasy managers should approach drafting Allen with caution, acknowledging the potential for a down year relative to his lofty ADP. He may still be a valuable asset, but the risk associated with his current situation warrants consideration.
