Unilever.edu.vn dives deep into the intricate flood situation in Vietnam for 2024, offering a comprehensive report on the predicted weather patterns, typhoons, and the impact of the La Nina phenomenon. As experts anticipate an above-average typhoon season, we aim to provide valuable insights into the challenges and potential consequences facing Vietnam.
A Shift in Weather Patterns: La Nina’s Influence
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting anticipates a transition from the current neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) state to La Nina conditions. This shift is predicted to occur between September and November 2024, with a probability of 60-70%, increasing to 65-75% towards the year’s end.
La Nina’s presence will likely exacerbate the typhoon and flooding situation in Vietnam, particularly in the central regions. The predicted number of typhoons and tropical depressions forming in the East Sea (South China Sea) is expected to be around 4-5, with 2-3 directly impacting Vietnam’s mainland, exceeding the average for recent years.
Impact of La Nina on Rainfall and Flooding
The Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change predicts La Nina’s persistence throughout the last quarter of 2024, leading to more frequent and intense storms and heavy rainfall, particularly in the central regions.
Here’s a breakdown of the projected rainfall patterns across Vietnam:
Northern Regions:
- October and November: Above average by 10-20% in lowlands and 5-10% in mountainous areas.
- December: Below average by 5-10%, with rainfall ranging between 20-40mm.
Central Regions:
- October and November: Above average by 10-30%, with December seeing above-average rainfall in specific provinces (Quang Binh, Quang Tri, Thua Thien Hue).
- Significant flood risks in October and November, with water levels potentially exceeding warning levels.
Southern Regions and Central Highlands:
- October and November: Above average by 5-20%.
- December: Above average by 10-30% in certain areas of the Southern Central Highlands and Southern region.
Typhoon Activity and Potential Threats
The Philippines Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued warnings about potential tropical depressions forming in the region, adding to Vietnam’s existing flood concerns.
Throughout September, the Philippines has been grappling with the aftermath of several typhoons, including Typhoon Yagi (international name: Yaki), which caused significant damage and loss of life. Yagi then crossed the East Sea, becoming the third typhoon to hit northern Vietnam this year, causing substantial damage.
Widespread Flooding and Its Devastating Consequences
Heavy rainfall, coupled with overflowing rivers and hydroelectric dam releases, has caused widespread flooding in several provinces. The Ma River in Thanh Hoa province has seen water levels rise significantly, inundating hundreds of homes and forcing residents to evacuate.
The situation in Lang Chanh district is particularly dire, with landslides causing extensive damage to infrastructure, including schools. Similar situations are reported in Ngoc Lac district, highlighting the severity of the flooding and landslide risks.
Dau Tieng Lake: Controlled Release and Potential for Localized Flooding
To mitigate flood risks in downstream areas, the Southern Irrigation Exploitation One Member Limited Liability Company has initiated controlled water releases from Dau Tieng Lake. While this is not expected to cause widespread flooding, authorities in Binh Duong province are on high alert for potential localized flooding in low-lying areas along the Saigon River.
Tri An Hydropower Plant: Increased Discharge and Downstream Impacts
Tri An Hydropower Plant in Dong Nai province has also increased its water discharge to manage the rising water levels. This increased flow, combined with heavy rainfall, poses a risk of flooding in downstream areas along the Dong Nai River. The plant has issued warnings to local authorities and residents to take necessary precautions.
Conclusion: A Call for Vigilance and Preparedness
As Vietnam enters the peak of its flood season, the situation remains highly dynamic and uncertain. The potential impact of La Nina adds another layer of complexity, increasing the likelihood of intense weather events and flooding.
Unilever.edu.vn urges everyone to stay vigilant and heed official warnings and advisories. It’s crucial to be prepared for potential emergencies, prioritize safety, and support communities affected by these challenging weather events.
