The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has seen a dramatic shift in recent weeks, with Russia claiming significant territorial gains in the eastern Donbas region and a major Ukrainian incursion into western Russia. These developments have fueled a new phase of instability, marking the first instance of the conflict reaching Russian soil.
Unilever.edu.vn analyzes the intricate details of the Kursk conflict, highlighting the tactical implications and strategic ramifications of these recent developments.
Russia Claims Control in Kursk as Ukrainian Offensive Stalls
Russian forces have launched a series of counteroffensives in the Kursk region, aiming to repel the Ukrainian advance. Clashes between the two sides are particularly intense near Kireyevsk, where Russia claims to have pushed back Ukrainian forces by approximately 400 meters. Another hot spot is the Sudzha district, where fierce battles continue.
Military analyst Yuri Podolyaka asserts that the situation in Kursk demonstrates a shift in momentum in favor of Russia. Russian units are actively pressuring both flanks of the attack area, potentially encircling Ukrainian forces. This development is particularly concerning for Ukraine, as elite units have been withdrawn from this section of the front and replaced with less-trained troops. Podolyaka predicts that Ukraine will struggle to maintain control of its positions in Kursk in the long run.
The Ukrainian incursion, launched on August 6th, aimed to pressure Russia into peace negotiations and divert Moscow’s forces from the eastern front. However, the reality has not unfolded as Kyiv anticipated.
Russian soldiers on tank
The latest report from the Russian Ministry of Defense states that Ukrainian armed forces have suffered losses exceeding 11,220 personnel, 87 tanks, and 74 armored personnel carriers since the start of the conflict in the Kursk region. Moscow maintains that their operations aimed at destroying Ukrainian formations are ongoing.
Furthermore, the Northern task force repelled five enemy attacks on September 8th near Malaya Logovka, Chertkovo, Konopka, Mayka, and Sagot. On September 9th, Ukrainian armed forces lost 240 personnel and 13 pieces of equipment in the Kursk region, including two tanks and eleven infantry fighting vehicles.
Russia’s Donbas Offensive Gains Momentum as Ukraine Redirects Resources
While repelling Ukrainian attacks in Kursk, Russia has also targeted Ukrainian troop concentrations and foreign mercenaries in the Sumy region, a Ukrainian province bordering Russia. Meanwhile, on the Ukrainian battlefield, Russia continues to advance in Donetsk, the Donbas region. The Russian Ministry of Defense recently announced the capture of the town of Novogrodovka, near the strategic city of Pokrovsk.
Russian soldiers near military vehicles
Pokrovsk lies on a critical road used by the Ukrainian military to supply other front-line positions, such as the cities of Seversk and Krasnogorovka in the Donetsk region. Taking control of the city, considered a gateway to Donetsk, would allow Russia to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines along the eastern front and strengthen their campaign to control the city of Seversk. The capture of Seversk, situated on higher ground, would provide Russia with the ability to control a larger area.
Ukraine’s Kursk Gambit: A High-Stakes Gamble
The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk has impressed Western partners with its initial rapid progress, challenging the notion that the conflict had reached a stalemate. However, a month into the operation, US and European officials have questioned Kyiv’s ultimate objective for the region. Some officials worry that Ukraine may be forced to relinquish the territory if Moscow launches a larger counteroffensive.
European officials also express concern about the high cost of the Kursk operation for Ukraine. Seth Jones, director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, suggests that Ukraine does not appear to be adequately prepared for a large-scale, protracted defensive operation in Kursk.
The BBC reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has indicated that Kyiv might use the situation in the Kursk region as a bargaining chip in negotiations. However, some allies are concerned that Ukraine may not be able to hold onto Russian territory long enough to gain leverage in any diplomatic effort.
A New Front Opens as Russia Makes Gains in Donbas
Since the raid began last month, Russia has responded with intensified airstrikes, launching barrages of missiles and drones at Ukrainian cities. On the Ukrainian side, Kyiv has stepped up its air attacks, particularly targeting energy infrastructure and military facilities deep inside Russia. The Ukrainian attack on Kursk has resulted in the capture of hundreds of square kilometers of territory and dozens of small villages, as well as the capture of hundreds of Moscow’s prisoners of war.
While this initially caught Russia off guard, Ukrainian forces have made little progress since the first two weeks, and Russia has gradually stabilized the front line. However, the Ukrainian raid on Kursk has inadvertently presented an opportunity for Russia, allowing them to attack at an unusually rapid pace on the eastern front. Some analysts believe this is partly due to Kyiv diverting some of its reserve forces and ammunition from this area to the Kursk offensive.
Meanwhile, Russian forces have steadily moved towards the city of Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub, and breached Ukrainian defense lines. This advance threatens to disrupt Kyiv’s supply lines to the Donbas region and increases the chances of a major breakthrough along the front line there.
Ukrainian officials have stated their hope that the offensive in Kursk will draw Russian forces away from the Pokrovsk front, which is currently facing immense pressure. However, at least so far, Moscow has not taken the bait. Instead, they have chosen to commit some of their most ready combat resources to continue their advance towards Pokrovsk, rather than focus on repelling Ukrainian troops from their territory in Kursk.
President Vladimir Putin confirmed on September 5th that the Kremlin is prioritizing the Pokrovsk offensive. Putin asserted at an economic forum that the enemy’s objective was to cause Russia to become anxious and hastily redeploy forces from one area to another, thereby preventing their offensive in critical areas, primarily Donbas. Putin believes that the enemy has failed in this objective. By redeploying significant and well-trained units to the border districts, they weakened themselves in critical areas, while Russian forces intensified their offensive operations.
Uncertain Outcomes and Potential Escalation
Most independent military analysts believe it is still too early to determine whether Ukraine’s gamble in Kursk will succeed. Zelensky claimed this week that Russia had deployed approximately 60,000 troops to Kursk to counter the offensive, and open-source researchers have confirmed that Moscow’s units have been moving from other fronts.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), based in Washington, suggests that the Russian command could be redeploying some limited forces that could potentially be used for future offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction.
Michael Kofman, a senior research scholar at the CNA Corporation and a military expert at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, wrote in a recent article for Foreign Affairs that the risks should not be underestimated.
The best-case scenario, according to Kofman and Doly, is that Ukraine will limit Russian gains in Donbas and continue to hold the captured Kursk territories with a sustainable force. However, the worst-case scenario in the coming months is that Ukraine will lose significant territory in the east and fail to retain the territory in Kursk that it intended to use as a bargaining chip.
Philip O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, argues that the success of Ukraine’s Kursk campaign is being underestimated, stating that it is a significant strategic achievement.
First, Ukraine is occupying a large, potentially defensible, and logistically useful area inside Russia. This is a region that Russia will have a hard time regaining without committing substantial forces. According to O’Brien, the territories captured by Kyiv in Russia also create a buffer zone for Ukraine’s Sumy region, forcing Moscow to stretch its current army to protect the rest of the border.
Zelensky has stated that the offensive into Kursk is part of a larger effort to bring the conflict into Russia and force the Kremlin to negotiate on fair terms. Ukraine has also intensified its air campaign targeting military and energy facilities deep inside Russia, using a growing fleet of domestically produced drones.
Last week, Ukraine carried out one of its largest drone attacks targeting power plants and oil refineries just outside Moscow. Zelensky stated at a press conference in Kyiv that he intends to present a plan to President Joe Biden on how to force Russia to end the conflict when he visits the US later this month.
The Ukrainian leader said the Kursk operation is part of that plan but that he will also outline diplomatic and economic measures to pressure Russia. He did not disclose details but said the plan’s main aim is to force Russia to end the conflict.
Last week, Zelensky carried out the biggest cabinet reshuffle since the conflict began, with the departure of some senior ministers, including Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, one of the most recognizable faces in the Ukrainian government. Zelensky explained that this was a necessary move to inject new energy into the government.
Some of Ukraine’s supporters in the West have described the Kursk raid as a major victory that will significantly change the course and outcome of the conflict. However, the reality is that the offensive has failed in its own objectives and may actually be seriously damaging Kyiv’s position on the battlefield.
The Ukrainian offensive did not capture any important Russian population or transportation center. It arguably has some meaning in raising the morale of the Ukrainian population in general, but according to Western reports from eastern Ukraine, it does not help strengthen the fighting spirit of the forces there.
There is evidence that Russia, not Ukraine, is consolidating its military position for eventual negotiations, and it is entirely unclear whether Ukrainian attacks deep into Russian territory can significantly change this trend.
