The Russia-Ukraine war has been raging for over 920 days, with the hottest flashpoint currently in the Kursk Oblast, where Ukrainian forces (AFU) have launched a surprise offensive, penetrating deep into Russian territory before being halted. While Ukraine’s initial incursion into Kursk caught Moscow off guard, Russia has been making alarming progress in eastern Ukraine. This raises concerns that Kyiv’s gamble in Kursk could backfire, leaving its forces vulnerable in Donbas and potentially costing them dearly.
The Stalemate in Kursk and the Escalation in Donbas
The situation in eastern Ukraine presents a stark contrast to the events in Kursk Oblast. While Ukrainian troops initially experienced minimal resistance in Kursk and gained around 1,000 square kilometers within a few days, their forces in the east have been enduring intense pressure from Russia’s relentless military offensives, gradually becoming exhausted. Despite this, many still support the Kursk operation, believing it could boost Ukrainian morale and influence the international community. Ukraine, aware of the declining morale among its troops and the risk of entering negotiations from a weak position, desperately needs a victory to uplift the spirits of both its soldiers and civilians. In other words, the Kursk operation carries significant political and psychological weight.
Learning from the overly hyped and ultimately unsuccessful 2023 counteroffensive, Ukraine has maintained strict secrecy surrounding the Kursk operation. The planning process for this incursion was kept confidential, even from high-ranking Ukrainian officials and their allies. Ukrainian soldiers redeployed to the Sumy Oblast, bordering Russia, were under the impression they were being moved to a quieter area for rest. Most were unaware of their mission to cross the border and strike Russian territory until the very last moment.
Yevhen, a deputy battalion commander in the 14th Brigade, highlighted the significant difference in morale between the two groups of soldiers. His regiment had to split its forces between the Kursk front and the eastern front. Among the Ukrainian troops redeployed to Sumy was Oleksandr, a 30-year-old soldier who received instructions on August 4th to move from his position in eastern Ukraine to Sumy. He initially assumed this signaled a defensive operation. The following night, under a crescent moonlit sky, he drove to a grove near a sunflower field, preparing to launch a one-way drone attack on a series of high-priority targets within Russian territory. Upon realizing this drone strike was part of a larger incursion into Russian territory, Oleksandr’s reaction was a simple, “This is good.”
While some of their comrades were redeployed to Kursk, the remaining Ukrainian troops were left grappling to hold their ground for as long as possible in the east. At a makeshift base under a roadside canopy in Avdiivka, Oleksandr, a 58-year-old soldier in charge of a MaxPro armored vehicle in the 68th Brigade, confessed to the struggles his unit was facing. They had lost 9.6 kilometers in just one week. During an interview with the Washington Post, some Ukrainian soldiers pleaded for the US to provide them with more armored vehicles, including the M113 armored personnel carrier, to minimize casualties from Russia’s incessant shelling.
The intensity of the battle in the direction of Kupyansk has escalated since Ukraine’s partial seizure of Kursk. Across the town, civilians are preparing for evacuation amidst the echoing sounds of distant artillery fire.
A Costly Gamble? Analyzing Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion
The Hill reports that Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region of Russia has, so far, failed to achieve one of its primary objectives: diverting Russian troops from the eastern front lines to reshape the battlefield. Kyiv’s surprise attack in August did achieve other goals, such as tarnishing the image of the mighty Russian military’s ability to defend its own soil, destroying military assets, gaining territory and prisoners for leverage in negotiations. However, Ukraine is facing widespread skepticism as it concentrates resources on Kursk, leaving the eastern front lines with vulnerabilities that could come at a high price.
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently declared that the adversary has failed to achieve the main task they set for themselves: to stop our offensive in Donbas. Indeed, Russia has not experienced such a pace of offensive operations in Donbas for a long time. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky argues that the Kursk offensive is a crucial part of Ukraine’s strategy and will be included in the “victory plan” he intends to discuss with the US in the near future. Zelensky claims that Russia’s repeated airstrikes on cities across Ukraine have validated Kyiv’s tactics, particularly in Kursk. He declared, “We must push the war to where it originated, to Russia, and not just to the border areas. Russia must feel what real war is.”
However, according to The Hill, some Ukrainian citizens and soldiers have publicly questioned Ukraine’s true intentions in Kursk, given Russia’s recent gains on the front lines, especially in Donbas. Mariana Bezuhla, a member of the Ukrainian Parliament, revealed that Ukrainian commanders had deployed inexperienced units to defend Kupyansk, a critical logistics hub in Donbas. Regarding Russia’s recent achievements, she stated, “Now we have to endure additional consequences, the loss of more lives and territory.”
The Russian Perspective: A Calculated Strategy?
Jor Barabash, director of strategy at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, suggests that while it’s still early in the Kursk operation, it seems to be heading towards failure. He argued, “The Russians didn’t divert a significant number of forces away from the front lines in Ukraine. If they are, they’ve started to do it very slowly. There seems to be a lot of skepticism about what the Ukrainian offensive is about, and I think there are growing concerns that it was a mistake.”
The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Russia appears determined to capture Kupyansk, choosing to delay committing forces to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk. Barabash noted that Russia has also turned the Kursk operation into an opportunity to attrit Ukrainian troops and armor, forces that have suffered heavy casualties on Moscow’s territory. He stated, “The Ukrainians are losing more people, they’re losing more armor, they’re losing more weapons, they’re using up ammunition. And from the Russian point of view, all that’s good, so I don’t think they’re in a hurry to end the attack in Kursk.”
Ukraine may have gained over 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory, captured hundreds of soldiers, and over 100 settlements in Kursk. However, these figures pale in comparison to the 20% of Ukrainian territory currently under Russian control. Stephen Walt, a professor of international relations at Harvard University’s Kennedy School, commented that the territory Ukraine holds in Kursk represents 0.0064% of Russia’s total land area and 0.138% of its population. He said, “The operation was a tactical success but not a major strategic accomplishment. It has boosted Ukrainian morale and exposed some Russian weaknesses, but there are clear limits to how far Kyiv can go,” emphasizing that the war will be decided primarily by events on Ukrainian territory, not in Kursk. He added, “However, this short-term success for Ukraine could ultimately be deemed a strategic mistake if it weakens Ukraine’s defenses in the east and allows Russia to make greater gains there.” He predicted that Russia might let Ukraine temporarily control a small portion of its territory, knowing they can regain full control later.
Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow and director of foreign policy research at the Brookings Institution, suggested that Ukraine is attempting to use the Kursk territory for leverage in negotiations after realizing they won’t be able to reclaim most of their land through a counteroffensive. However, he believes Russia will likely not agree to a “1000 for one” bargain, referring to the territory currently controlled by both sides.
The Larger Picture: A War of Attrition
Ukraine’s deployment of troops for the gamble in Kursk has left the strategic city of Kupyansk in Donbas vulnerable to falling into Russian hands. In other regions, such as Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Ukrainian forces are also facing difficulties. Kupyansk, the administrative center of a major industrial area with a pre-war population of nearly 400,000, could soon be captured by the Russian military. Russian forces are already within 10 kilometers to the east and steadily advancing.
After months of relentless shelling, Kupyansk, situated at the intersection of major road and railway lines, serves as a critical logistical hub for the Ukrainian military. Its capture by Russia could shatter the front line and become a propaganda victory for Moscow. While many in Ukraine hailed the military incursion into Kursk, catching Moscow off guard, tens of thousands in Donbas are fleeing the fighting nearing their homes. Meanwhile, Russia’s airstrikes on other parts of the country continue unabated. At least 51 people were killed in missile strikes on Poltava in central Ukraine on September 3rd.
While Russia has redeployed only a small number of troops from the front lines in Ukraine to Kursk, reinforcing them with well-trained conscripts and fighters from Chechnya, Ukraine has been forced to send thousands of soldiers to Kursk, leaving its forces in Donbas thin and unable to control the breach in the front line.
Mokin, a military expert, stated that “Moscow has stepped up its offensive on Kupyansk by deploying troops that had been attacking the nearby town of Kreminna, and a successful breakthrough in Donbas means the Russians will be able to attack Ukrainian forces in the nearby Zaporizhzhia region.” Moscow already captured three-quarters of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast in 2022, and Ukrainian forces only recaptured small areas in their disappointing counteroffensive last year. Mokin warned that “in the next two weeks, Ukraine is likely to lose almost the entire front line in Zaporizhzhia if it does not deploy its entire reserve force from somewhere or does not start a new offensive on Russian territory.” However, Ukraine appears to have exhausted its reserve forces amidst further casualties in the Kherson region in the south of the country. Most of Kherson has been under Russian control since 2022, and Ukraine has continued to attempt to retake territory there by capturing small islands in the Dnipro River delta. Despite heavy casualties, Mokin noted that “in recent weeks, the Ukrainian military has abandoned most of these islands, and their undermanned air defense forces are unable to stop Russian drone attacks on the region’s capital city of the same name.” He concluded, “Overall, Ukraine’s position in August deteriorated rapidly.”
Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials insist that the impending loss of Kupyansk will not lead to a strategic victory for Moscow, as Russia is running out of manpower, weapons, and ammunition. Oleksiy Danilov, head of the National Security and Defense Council, stated in a televised address, “This late summer period has also brought other sad news for Kyiv. In July, Ukraine received 10 F-16 fighter jets and has already suffered the loss of its first one and its top ace pilot last week.” However, not all is bleak on the front lines as Ukraine continues to attack Russian airfields, fuel depots, military factories, and infrastructure in drone strikes. The largest such attack took place on the night of August 31st, involving 158 drones reaching 16 Russian regions, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.
Even as Ukrainian troops endure persistent pressure in other areas of the front line, these attacks on Russia have provided a much-needed morale boost inside Ukraine after months of consistently grim news. A Western diplomat in Kyiv remarked, “They are in a desperate fight between David and Goliath, and this leads to their breakout spirit,” adding that “the Kursk operation has boosted the mood of the political elite incredibly powerfully.”
Conclusion: A Turning Point in the War?
As the war enters its third year, the strategic landscape is shifting. Ukraine’s audacious gamble in Kursk Oblast has yielded mixed results, raising questions about its long-term impact on the conflict. While the operation has provided a temporary morale boost and exposed weaknesses in Russia’s defenses, it has also left Ukraine vulnerable in the east. Russia, seemingly willing to accept short-term losses in Kursk, is now intensifying its efforts in Donbas, pushing towards the strategically vital city of Kupyansk.
The coming months will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the war. Will Ukraine be able to hold its ground in the east and consolidate its gains in Kursk? Or will Russia’s renewed offensive in Donbas prove decisive, negating any advantage gained by Kyiv’s cross-border incursion? The answers to these questions will shape the future of the conflict and determine the fate of both nations.
