The Tampa Bay Buccaneers secured their playoff spot for a remarkable fourth consecutive year in 2023, finishing the regular season with a 9-8 record. This accomplishment marked their third straight division title. Their postseason journey began with a resounding 32-9 Wild Card victory against the Philadelphia Eagles. However, their momentum was halted in the divisional round by a 31-23 loss to the Detroit Lions.
Tom Brady during a game
Despite the early playoff exit, the Buccaneers’ season was far from a failure. They navigated through challenges, including a nail-biting 39-37 loss to the Texans in week nine where CJ Stroud showcased his potential with over 450 passing yards and five touchdowns. Another setback came a few weeks later with a disappointing 27-2 home loss to the Colts. Yet, the Buccaneers rallied, winning five of their final six games to clinch the division title and their first playoff win under head coach Todd Bowles.
The Buccaneers’ season also saw significant contributions from their rookie class. Kijah Key and Yaya Diabi made an impact on defense, combining for 11.5 sacks. Second-round pick Cody Mauch demonstrated his durability, playing all 17 games and exceeding 1,100 snaps.
While the 2023 season held moments of triumph, the 2024 Buccaneers appear poised for a potential letdown. There are several factors contributing to this prediction, and a closer examination of their roster and schedule reveals the reasons behind this concern.
Defensive Concerns: Pass Rush Woes and Secondary Liabilities
The Buccaneers’ defense in 2023 boasted an impressive seventh-place ranking in points allowed per game, surrendering an average of just 19.1 points. Their ability to stifle opponents was evident as they held eight out of their 17 opponents to 20 points or less, resulting in a 7-1 record in those games. The lone loss during this stretch came against the Falcons in week seven. Including the Wild Card win over the Eagles, their record against such teams improves to an impressive 8-1.
Key contributors to their defensive success were Devin White and Antoine Winfield Jr., each exceeding 100 tackles. Winfield’s exceptional performance earned him a well-deserved four-year, $84 million contract extension, securing his place in Tampa through the 2027 season.
Levonte David during a game
Despite the presence of several playmakers, the Buccaneers’ defense heading into 2024 raises concerns, particularly in their pass rush and secondary. While the team possesses talent, their ability to consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks and maintain lockdown coverage appears questionable.
Pass Rush Concerns: Can They Generate Consistent Pressure?
The Buccaneers’ defensive line, anchored by the formidable Vita Vea, presents a significant challenge for opposing rushing attacks. However, their ability to generate consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks raises concerns.
Kijah Key, a promising young defensive tackle, is coming off an impressive rookie season. However, expecting him to single-handedly shoulder the burden of generating pressure would be unrealistic.
Yaya Diabi, who led the team with 7.5 sacks in 2023, showcased his potential. However, a deeper dive into his statistics reveals a concerning lack of consistency. Diabi finished the season with a mere 20 pressures and a pass-rush win rate of just 7.5%. These numbers indicate that while he capitalized on sack opportunities, his ability to consistently pressure the quarterback remained limited.
Vita Vea celebrating a tackle
The development, or lack thereof, of Joe Tryon-Shoyinka presents another area of concern for the Buccaneers’ pass rush. Tryon-Shoyinka’s five sacks in 2023 require context. A significant portion of his production came against the Bears, a team notorious for quarterbacks holding onto the ball for extended periods, and the struggling Panthers.
Randy Gregory, entering his age-32 season, represents another question mark within the Buccaneers’ pass rush. While he brings veteran experience, his reliability as a consistent edge-rushing threat at this stage of his career remains in doubt.
Secondary Concerns: Depth and Consistency Issues
The Buccaneers’ secondary, while anchored by the exceptional talents of Antoine Winfield Jr. and Jamel Dean, faces uncertainties. Dean, a 2019 third-round pick, has developed into a reliable cornerback. Similarly, 2023 undrafted free agent Christian Izien showed promise as a nickel cornerback.
The departure of Sean Murphy-Bunting in free agency leaves a void at the team’s second outside cornerback spot. Zyon McCollum, a fifth-round pick in 2022, is the front runner to start opposite Dean, but he struggled mightily as a rookie.
Offensive Concerns: Can They Establish a Run Game?
Beyond Baker Mayfield’s performance, the most pressing question mark for the Buccaneers in 2024 centers around their ability to establish a consistent rushing attack. Over the past two seasons, they’ve ranked last in the league in yards per carry, struggling to find any semblance of a ground game.
The addition of first-round pick Cody Mauch injects optimism into their offensive line, but it’s unrealistic to expect a rookie center, even one as highly touted as Mauch, to single-handedly transform their rushing woes.
The Buccaneers running back rushing
The Buccaneers’ inability to run the ball effectively puts immense pressure on their passing game. Without a credible threat on the ground, defenses can tee off against the pass, potentially limiting Mayfield’s effectiveness.
Schedule Breakdown: Navigating a Brutal Stretch
The Buccaneers face an uphill battle with their 2024 schedule. Their first three games include a road matchup against the Lions, a team that defeated them in the previous season, and a home game against the Sean Payton-led Broncos.
The schedule doesn’t get any easier after their Week 5 bye. They face a gauntlet of tough opponents, including the Eagles, Falcons (twice), Ravens, Falcons again, Chiefs, 49ers, and Chargers. This challenging stretch will test the Buccaneers’ resilience and could make or break their season.
The Buccaneers celebrating a touchdown
The Buccaneers will need to start strong and steal some wins against top-tier teams to remain competitive in a tough NFC South.
Conclusion: Tempering Expectations for 2024
The 2024 season presents a significant challenge for the Buccaneers. While they defied expectations in 2023, replicating that success appears unlikely. Their ability to generate a consistent pass rush, solidify their secondary, and establish a competent rushing attack will ultimately determine their fate.
While the Buccaneers possess talent on both sides of the ball, their 2024 outlook hinges on addressing their weaknesses and overcoming a challenging schedule.
