Thursday Night Football kicks off week three of the 2024 NFL regular season with an AFC East divisional matchup. The New York Jets, looking to snap a 13-season playoff drought, host the New England Patriots, a team exceeding expectations after posting the league’s lowest win total in the preseason. Sports Grid’s Tom Veo breaks down the player prop bets for this Thursday night clash.
Analyzing the Matchup and the Point Spread
The Jets enter the game as a 6.5-point favorite at home, with the total set at a low 38.5. The low total suggests a defensive struggle, making it challenging for the Jets to cover the spread. Historically, underdogs have performed well this season, with those facing spreads of 5 points or more boasting a 9-1 record against the spread and 5 outright victories. The Patriots, specifically, have gone 8-0 against the spread as underdogs of 6 points or more.
This trend, coupled with the Patriots’ knack for controlling the clock with their run-heavy offense, makes New England an intriguing bet as an underdog. The Patriots’ strategy revolves around minimizing quarterback Jacoby Brissett’s exposure, relying on a ground game spearheaded by Rhamondre Stevenson and a stout defense.
Dissecting Quarterback Props and Offensive Game Plans
The low total is reflected in the modest quarterback prop bets. Aaron Rodgers’ passing yardage is set at 215.5, while Brissett’s sits at 163.5. Veo predicts a low-scoring affair, anticipating neither quarterback will eclipse the 300-yard mark.
The Patriots’ offensive scheme emphasizes ball control and limiting mistakes, making Brissett’s over 1.5 passing touchdowns a risky bet. On the other hand, Rodgers’ under 31.5 passing attempts seems like a safer option. This bet aligns with the Jets’ likely strategy of establishing a balanced attack, featuring a heavy dose of Breece Hall and a potentially revitalized Dalvin Cook, to control the tempo.
Examining Running Back and Wide Receiver Props
With both teams emphasizing the run, running back props become crucial. Stevenson, a workhorse for New England, offers value with his over 16.5 rushing attempts prop. He’s averaging 23 carries per game, making the line seem low, especially considering New England’s commitment to the run.
On the Jets’ side, Breece Hall’s rushing plus receiving yards prop is enticing. As the primary receiving back, he’s likely to see targets, particularly if the Jets build a lead. His involvement in both the run and pass game increases his chances of exceeding his projected total.
Garrett Wilson, the Jets’ top wideout, presents value with his anytime touchdown prop. He commands a team-high 29.3% target share and has yet to find the end zone this season. A matchup against the Patriots, who could struggle to contain him, makes Wilson a prime candidate to break out.
Key Takeaways and Prop Predictions
Thursday night’s matchup promises to be a defensive slugfest. The Patriots, known for their ability to control the clock and limit possessions, could keep the game close. Considering the low total and the Patriots’ track record as underdogs, they present value with the points.
In terms of player props, focus on options that align with the expected game script:
- Rhamondre Stevenson over 16.5 rushing attempts: The Patriots’ bell cow back will be heavily involved.
- Garrett Wilson anytime touchdown: The Jets’ top receiver is due for a score.
- Aaron Rodgers under 31.5 passing attempts: A balanced Jets’ attack favors the under.
Thursday Night Football offers intriguing betting opportunities, particularly for those who can decipher the low-scoring implications and identify value in player props that align with the anticipated game flow.
